The Nagelsmann effect

By Simon Wright – Follow me on Twitter @Siwri88

Nine matchdays in and the 2016/2017 Bundesliga season has already thrown up plenty of surprises and shocks. The current league table has a completely different feel to recent seasons.

Whilst the likes of FC Schalke 04, Bayer 04 Leverkusen and Borussia Mönchengladbach flounder in the unheralded reaches of mid-table, new challengers are emerging for the European qualifying positions.

RB Leipzig’s unbeaten start to their maiden German top-flight season has raised eyebrows, whilst the goalscoring glut from Anthony Modeste is keeping 1. FC Köln firmly in the chasing pack. However, there is another story taking effect at TSG 1899 Hoffenheim.

They might be one of the smallest clubs in the Bundesliga but Julian Nagelsmann has completely turned things around at the WIRSOL Rhein-Neckar-Arena. A fresh face in the dugout combined with other leading lights falling by the wayside has seen Hoffenheim fans begin to dream of European football heading their way next season.

It is a far cry from where they were at the start of 2016 when relegation looked all but a formality.

Defying the odds

2015/2016 was a poor season for Hoffenheim. Having sold Modeste to Köln and Roberto Firmino to Liverpool FC, the club was finding life very tough in the Bundesliga.

Markus Gisdol was sacked in October 2015 after a home defeat by his now current employers Hamburger SV. Huub Stevens took over but one of the league’s most experienced managers couldn’t halt the slide.

In early February, the die looked cast. A 2-0 defeat at home to SV Darmstadt 98 put Hoffenheim 10 points behind the Lilies and seven points below third-bottom SV Werder Bremen. It looked like they would be joining Hannover 96 in relegation to the second-tier.

Nagelsmann has taken Hoffenheim from relegation battlers to European contenders

Nagelsmann (pictured) was already taking over for this season but he became the league’s youngest ever manager at 28 years old on 11^th February when heart problems meant Stevens stood down from his role as the club’s Head Coach.

What was meant to be assessing what he had available to him and preparing for a quick return from 2. Bundesliga has turned into something no-one could have expected within the club.

Hoffenheim became one of the most in-form sides in the second half of the season and incredibly went on a five-game winning run during April which ultimately was enough. Safety was clinched on the penultimate weekend of the season.

With a 52% win ratio, Nagelsmann has worked wonders, achieving an average of 1.83 points per game which is the best return for a Hoffenheim manager in the Bundesliga. It has continued this season. Nine games in and Hoffenheim are at it again. Another five-game winning sequence has got the club into the Bundesliga’s top three and they are still unbeaten.

Can they continue to defy the odds?

High-press success

Nagelsmann is one of the new breed of German coaches who have successfully adopted the high-pressing game that Jurgen Klopp made famous during his successful time with Borussia Dortmund.

His well-drilled methods, together with getting his team to play the high-press strategy are really paying off. Two weeks ago, Hoffenheim visited Bayer 04 Leverkusen and put in one of the Bundesliga’s most impressive away performances of recent times.

Hoffenheim's recent victory in Leverkusen was very impressive

Leverkusen were reduced to 10 men inside six minutes but they were suffocated by Nagelsmann’s strategy. With no time on the ball and the extra man down (game pictured), the BayArena was almost hushed into silence by a stunning performance from the visitors. Hoffenheim won the game 3-0 and frankly, Leverkusen were lucky it wasn’t any heavier. This result made a lot of people in Germany sit up and ensured they took notice.

The 2016/2017 season started with four draws which included a 4-4 comeback result in Mainz but late winning situations thrown away at home to Leipzig and away to Darmstadt. Now after five successive wins; the latest being a 1-0 home triumph over Hertha BSC, Hoffenheim face their biggest test.

Saturday sees them come up against defending champions FC Bayern München. Still unbeaten too and setting the pace, Bayern will start as clear favourites but they shouldn’t underestimate their opponents. Nagelsmann will have a gameplay in place and should he be able to pull off a result here, it will frighten the life out of the reigning champions.

In his pre-match press conference, he said: "They are the best team in the football league but we are going to be successful against them, the preparation for the match against the best German team is very complex. But on the other hand, the football community in Germany doesn't expect much from us, which can be beneficial psychologically.”

Shrewd approach to transfers

Coaching has been in Nagelsmann’s blood for quite a while, although it was forced upon him from an early age. A serious knee injury whilst playing in FC Augsburg’s reserve team meant his playing career ended before it even began. Rather than walk away from this shattered dream, Nagelsmann decided to become a pupil of the game.

He worked under Thomas Tuchel at Augsburg and continued to learn his trade by coaching Hoffenheim’s various youth teams. He knows the DNA of the club and he has produced a mix of the young talent and shrewd use of the transfer market to take Hoffenheim forwards.

Kevin Volland may have left for pastures new but he has been replaced by Sandro Wagner. Wagner is a late developer but his goals kept Darmstadt up last season and I knew he was hot property in the summer. Hoffenheim’s ability to capture his services was a real coup and he has been joined by Kevin Vogt, who is a tidy footballer and Lukas Rupp – who might have suffered the pain of relegation in the last two seasons but clearly shone for both SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart.

Benjamin Hübner’s arrival from FC Ingolstadt 04 has clearly strengthened the defence, whilst weakening his former club severely and Andrej Kramaric is loving life after making his loan move from Leicester City permanent. The uncompromising Kerem Demirbay was added after being discarded by Hamburger SV and he has already impressed greatly at his new club.

Nagelsmann is not afraid of making tough calls either. He took the captaincy off Pirmin Schwegler in August, handing the armband to Eugen Polanski and if anything, it has united the dressing room rather than fracturing it.

Throw in the likes of Niklas Süle, who has already 80 appearances under his belt at just 21, the goalscoring exploits of Mark Uth, consistent Czech Pavel Kaderabek and the evergreen Oliver Baumann in goal and Hoffenheim have a very strong base for success. As I work closely on the Bundesliga license in my full-time role, I tipped Hoffenheim for a top-four finish at the start of the season, such was I impressed by their summer recruitment and options available to the manager.

The question now is can they stay there? Back in their first season in the Bundesliga (2008/2009), they topped the table going into the New Year but fell away in the second half of the campaign to finish seventh. At the very worst, they should have no problems in matching that position this term.

Whilst others look in disarray, there is no reason to suggest Hoffenheim will fall away. Saturday’s trip to the Allianz Arena will be a real test and if they can come away with another positive result, the quiet waves they’re making will suddenly be realised by all across Europe.

Julian Nagelsmann is one of the game’s brightest young talents and at just 29 years old, he can become one of football’s most dominating figures for the next two/three decades. He deserves all the plaudits he is getting and there is no reason for the fans to not dream of that famous UEFA Champions League music being played out at the WIRSOL Rhein-Neckar-Arena next season.

At this moment, the prospects of some form of European football next season are looking very good for TSG 1899 Hoffenheim.